Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Detection of Vibrio cholerae and Acanthamoeba species from same natural water samples collected from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Vibrio cholerae </it>O1 and <it>V. cholerae </it>O139 infect humans, causing the diarrheal and waterborne disease cholera, which is a worldwide health problem. <it>V. cholerae </it>and the free-living amoebae <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species are present in aquatic environments, including drinking water and it has shown that <it>Acanthamoebae </it>support bacterial growth and survival. Recently it has shown that <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species enhanced growth and survival of <it>V. cholerae </it>O1 and O139. Water samples from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan were collected with the aim to detect both <it>V. cholerae </it>and <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species from same natural water samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR).</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>For the first time both <it>V. cholerae </it>and <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species were detected in same natural water samples collected from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan. 89% of detected <it>V. cholerae </it>was found with <it>Acanthamoeba </it>in same water samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The current findings disclose <it>Acanthamoedae </it>as a biological factor enhancing survival of <it>V. cholerae </it>in nature.</p

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability

A Mathematical Approach Lights up The Way to End Cholera Transmission

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies.We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1-14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies.We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions

Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana

Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. METHODS: We used wavelet analyses and derived methods because these are useful mathematical tools to provide information on the evolution of the periodic component over time and allow quantification of non-stationary associations between time series. RESULTS: The temporal variability of cholera incidence exhibits an interannual component, and a significant synchrony in cholera epidemics is highlighted at the end of the 1980's. This observed synchrony across countries, even if transient through time, is also coherent with both the local variability of rainfall and the global climate variability quantified by the Indian Oscillation Index. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that large and regional scale climate variability influence both the temporal dynamics and the spatial synchrony of cholera epidemics in human populations in the Gulf of Guinea, as has been described for two other tropical regions of the world, western South America and Bangladesh

Acquired Type III Secretion System Determines Environmental Fitness of Epidemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Interaction with Bacterivorous Protists

Genome analyses of marine microbial communities have revealed the widespread occurrence of genomic islands (GIs), many of which encode for protein secretion machineries described in the context of bacteria-eukaryote interactions. Yet experimental support for the specific roles of such GIs in aquatic community interactions remains scarce. Here, we test for the contribution of type III secretion systems (T3SS) to the environmental fitness of epidemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Comparisons of V. parahaemolyticus wild types and T3SS-defective mutants demonstrate that the T3SS encoded on genome island VPaI-7 (T3SS-2) promotes survival of V. parahaemolyticus in the interaction with diverse protist taxa. Enhanced persistence was found to be due to T3SS-2 mediated cytotoxicity and facultative parasitism of V. parahaemolyticus on coexisting protists. Growth in the presence of bacterivorous protists and the T3SS-2 genotype showed a strong correlation across environmental and clinical isolates of V. parahaemolyticus. Short-term microcosm experiments provide evidence that protistan hosts facilitate the invasion of T3SS-2 positive V. parahaemolyticus into a coastal plankton community, and that water temperature and productivity further promote enhanced survival of T3SS-2 positive V. parahaemolyticus. This study is the first to describe the fitness advantage of GI-encoded functions in a microbial food web, which may provide a mechanistic explanation for the global spread and the seasonal dynamics of V. parahaemolyticus pathotypes, including the pandemic serotype cluster O3:K6, in aquatic environments

The Regulatory Network of Natural Competence and Transformation of Vibrio cholerae

The human pathogen Vibrio cholerae is an aquatic bacterium frequently encountered in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions. Within these environmental reservoirs, the bacterium is often found associated with zooplankton and more specifically with their chitinous exoskeleton. Upon growth on such chitinous surfaces, V. cholerae initiates a developmental program termed “natural competence for genetic transformation.” Natural competence for transformation is a mode of horizontal gene transfer in bacteria and contributes to the maintenance and evolution of bacterial genomes. In this study, we investigated competence gene expression within this organism at the single cell level. We provide evidence that under homogeneous inducing conditions the majority of the cells express competence genes. A more heterogeneous expression pattern was observable on chitin surfaces. We hypothesize that this was the case due to the heterogeneity around the chitin surface, which might vary extensively with respect to chitin degradation products and autoinducers; these molecules contribute to competence induction based on carbon catabolite repression and quorum-sensing pathways, respectively. Therefore, we investigated the contribution of these two signaling pathways to natural competence in detail using natural transformation assays, transcriptional reporter fusions, quantitative RT–PCR, and immunological detection of protein levels using Western blot analysis. The results illustrate that all tested competence genes are dependent on the transformation regulator TfoX. Furthermore, intracellular cAMP levels play a major role in natural transformation. Finally, we demonstrate that only a minority of genes involved in natural transformation are regulated in a quorum-sensing-dependent manner and that these genes determine the fate of the surrounding DNA. We conclude with a model of the regulatory circuit of chitin-induced natural competence in V. cholerae